PRESIDENCY TRUMP 2.0: AN ANALYSIS

Introduction.
President Donald Trump, after assuming office on 20 Jan 2025, took a series of major executive orders leading to disruptive yet strategic policy decisions with implications for global geopolitics.

2. Trump: The Man.
(a) Disruptor: Challenges conventional norms in policy and diplomacy.
(b) Defies Logic: Many decisions appear counterintuitive but align with long-term strategies.
(C) Anti-Deep State: Actively opposes entrenched bureaucratic influence.
(d) Deal Maker: Positions himself as a negotiator seeking favorable trade and diplomatic agreements.
(f) Anti-War: Strongly opposes unnecessary military conflicts.

Key Executive Orders. Foreign Policy and Global Implications.
Russia and Ukraine.
Trump’s strategy aims to bring adversaries to the negotiation table. His decision to halt financial assistance to Ukraine, providing a 90-day reassessment period, reflects economic considerations and a broader effort to engage Russia diplomatically. Whether this results in a "cold war," a "frozen conflict," or a resolution remains uncertain.

China
Trump has reinforced diplomatic talks with the Chinese leadership while maintaining strong trade restrictions. The ongoing U.S.-China economic rivalry remains central to his foreign policy agenda. Trump’s policies address China’s dominance in electric vehicle (EV) production and critical mineral supplies, offering a temporary buffer for other nations to develop their supply chains. He has revoked the electric vehicle (EV) mandate set by the previous administration. His administration extended TikTok’s operational period, indicating a continuation of the U.S.-China trade war. He believes tariffs provide the necessary leverage for economic negotiations.

Taiwan
His stance on Taiwan signals a shift in the U.S. approach, reflecting a strategic recalibration.

Strengthening Diplomatic and Military Support for Israel and Egypt. The U.S. State Department has ordered a comprehensive freeze on new funding for most foreign aid programs globally, excluding military assistance and emergency food aid to Israel and Egypt. President Trump authorised delivery of 1800 MK-84 (2,000-pound) bombs to Israel, reversing an embargo by the previous administration. This measure ensures that military support to Israel continues uninterrupted.

U.S.-Saudi Relations.
The U.S.-Saudi partnership remains strong, with shared strategic interests, including arms imports and regional stability. Saudi Arabia’s $600 billion investment pledge over four years is considered feasible. This investment aligns with diplomatic engagements such as the Abraham Accords and continued support for Israel’s security. Additionally, Trump has pursued new energy agreements with Saudi Arabia to stabilize global oil prices and strengthen U.S. energy security.

Immigration
Trump remains firmly opposed to illegal immigration, advocating for stricter border controls, including imposition of an emergency on the Mexican border. He intensified crackdown on illegal immigration and has sought to end birthright citizenship. However, his stance on legal immigration, particularly H-1B visas, has evolved. Influenced by industry leaders like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, he acknowledges the importance of skilled migration to give a fillip to America’s technological and economic edge. Notwithstanding, proposed changes in visa regulations may impact birthright citizenship in the case of children born in the U.S., a policy shift that is under legal review.

India has consistently taken responsibility for its nationals, whether through evacuations from conflict zones or crisis support. Legal Indian immigrants in the U.S. are unlikely to face major issues, although some policy shifts may impact visa provisions for their families. The Indian government remains prepared to repatriate verified illegal immigrants. Indian-origin children born in the US would also be affected by changes in provisions related to birthright citizenship.

Geopolitical Shifts and Economic Cooperation.
Trump’s "America First" or make America Great Again (MAGA) agenda extends to U.S. foreign aid policies. The suspension of aid to Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Nepal reflects a temporary reassessment rather than a permanent withdrawal. Bangladesh, in particular, remains a key strategic partner, and U.S. support is likely to be restored through alternative funding mechanisms. Additionally, his administration has placed greater scrutiny on aid distribution, emphasizing accountability and alignment with U.S. national security interests.

Trade, Technological Supremacy and AI Investments.
Trump’s tariff policies on trade target both allies and adversaries, reinforcing a broader strategy of economic dominance. He prioritizes America’s leadership in technology. His administration’s $500 billion investment in AI infrastructure underscores U.S. commitment to maintaining a technological edge. Furthermore, he has emphasized boosting domestic semiconductor production, reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains and ensuring American dominance in the AI and quantum computing sectors.

U.S. Policies on Terrorism.
Trump has redefined counterterrorism priorities, emphasizing crackdowns on funding sources for radical organizations and strengthening border security measures besides denying visas to individuals from countries linked to extremist activities. Policies to combat foreign terrorism primarily target Latin American drug cartels, which Trump classifies as terrorist organizations.

Withdrawal from Climate and Multilateral Agreements.
Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization (WHO) marks a significant shift in U.S. policy. His "Drill Baby Drill" policy emphasizes increased fossil fuel production, including shale gas and oil extraction. Increased domestic oil drilling in Alaska and other regions has been approved. Restrictions on coal and nuclear power have also been revoked. All this is in pursuit of greater domestic energy independence . While his moves challenge global climate initiatives, India continues to advance its renewable energy efforts through initiatives like the International Solar Alliance and the Global Biofuel Alliance.

Prospects for a Trump Visit to India.
Speculation suggests Trump may visit India and China within his first 100 days, though scheduling remains uncertain. Diplomatic engagements with India indicate a continued commitment to defense and technological collaboration, despite potential trade and immigration challenges.

Furthermore, U.S.-India defense agreements, including potential co-production of advanced military equipment, signal a strengthening bilateral relationship.

Conclusion.
Trump’s presidency is marked by disruption, strategic manoeuvring, and a strong emphasis on economic and technological leadership. While his policies may pose challenges, they also create opportunities for recalibrated global partnerships. India-U.S. relations, despite some friction, are expected to continue growing in defense, technology, and economic cooperation.

His administration's policies will continue shaping the global order, emphasizing economic self-reliance, security-first diplomacy, and prioritization of domestic industries.