INDIA’S STRATEGIC OPTIONS IN THE EMERGING INTERNATIONAL ORDER

Global Geopolitical Environment
1. In an interconnected world, strategic autonomy is attained through comprehensive national power, decisive leadership, a strong economy and national consensus. India has achieved a lot in this sphere and must retain this status hereafter.

2. A policy of developing India’s strategic culture through better education on international and strategic affairs, more exposure to citizens, encouragement to think tanks etc will result in evolved public opinion on national interests. This will be helpful for strategic decision making.

3. The Black Swan Event – Coronavirus, had all the negatives but also worked positively in enhancing India’s global stature. To be recognized as the ‘global pharmacy’, India gained singular honour. The bounce back of the economy has similarly enhanced India’s image.

4. Many of the local initiatives by the Government of India have been internationally appreciated and thus further added to India’s international image. These relate to digital infrastructure in which there is continued scope for achieving even more and sharing it with the international community.

5. Surya Foundation Think Tank comprising domain experts carried out an in depth study of the “India’s Strategic Options in the Emerging International Order”. Their analysis and suggestions are given in the succeeding paras.

INDIA’S STRATEGIC OPTIONS IN THE EMERGING
INTERNATIONAL ORDER
ISSUES AND RECOMMENDATIONS
6. Major international polarization has taken place due to the Ukraine war. The Indian stance of strategic autonomy has been beneficial but each issue needs consideration from a national interest angle.

7. The importance of Russia is diminishing but we must remain circumspect that Indo Russian relations are still crucial to us. On time supplies of armaments and munitions that we seek from that route may remain compromised for some time, as in the case of the S 400 Air Defence Systems. A realistic assessment should be done to ascertain the effect on the supply chain management on our warfighting capability.

8. Diversification of defence platforms may be disadvantageous in equipment management but ensures better and assured supply chains.

9. The Russia-China embrace is getting stronger and could last fairly long. The balancing effect of a strong Indo-US relationship should always remain our major guiding factor, contingent upon the US acceptance of our strategic autonomy.

10. India’s technological advancement is inspiring greater confidence in its geopolitical footprint too. Respect for the nation among neighbors has increased considerably; including within Pakistan’s political community. This helps in cultivating confidence in neighbors and working against competitors.

11. The Government in its international publicity needs to project India’s growth as beneficial for the entire world; especially in view of it being one of the few nations which have stronger emerged from the pandemic. Our missions abroad need to dwell on this theme.

12. India does not need to be provocative in its security considerations as it enjoys a good international reputation. We must aim at a threshold economic status as the acme of most strategic threats to India. This should be mantra for the next decade and perhaps more. Aberrations could occur but we must devise strategy to accept these without loss of face.

13. Climate change, vaccine, pandemic and digital sciences, are the new buzz words. India is familiar with all this. We should ensure we are perceived as the laboratory for it.

14. We need clarity in our policy formulation about the degree to which our strategic relationship with the US must go, considering our responsibility towards equations in which we are with the US. This relates to our relationships with many other nations, including China.

The Ukraine War
15. The war goes against the grain in a post pandemic situation when the world is looking at development rather than wars. Our Hon’ble Prime Minister’s wise counsel – “this is not the era for war” – to President Putin continues to make waves. We should again dwell on this even though the Hamas-Israel War has since broken out and is causing havoc in relationships in an already turbulent strategic environment.

16. Multi domain warfare is the flavor of the season in which lessons are continuously emerging from Ukraine. The government may consider a politico-military war game to be conducted at the highest level to examine the effect of such situations on our interests and strategy. Hybrid war has to be studied abundantly by different institutions and better understood as a part of our strategic culture.

17. A joint study group of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) and Ministry of Defence (MoD) be constituted to see the larger impact of the Ukraine war. This should include domains such as the employment of private armies and fighters. The status of the outcome and the regional geography at the end of the war needs consideration of several think tanks to give wider perceptions.

18. Given the Hon’ble PM’s international stature, can India play a more proactive role in securing peace in Ukraine. This issue has been insufficiently examined thus far.

19. The Rule Based Order is what India believes in but it must be applicable to all nations. The Realist approach looks at this with an eye to ensure that India is not the first to break international rules of international co-existence. 20. We must remember that at some stage Russia may actually need India to counter China. Hence the legacy policy towards Russia must continue notwithstanding US objections.

The G20 Experience
21. India’s energetic conduct of the G20 process was much appreciated. It helped build a consensus while emergence as the leader of the Global South was uncontested.

22. India’s emergence as leader of the Global South is something to be proud of. We must take this to the next step with a sponsored meeting of representatives of the Global South.

23. India’s role bridging the divide, dismantling barriers and sowing seeds of collaboration was mature and seminal. It has been acknowledged as such. A full study on the success must be done by the government and documented for such future roles which come its way.

24. The concept of the universal friend of all (Vishwamitra), now adopted, as against the Vishwaguru or mentor to the world is likely to project a less condescending approach in India’s relationship with the international community. This approach should be reinforced with time.

25. The strategic autonomy displayed in the G20 processes has been a huge image boost for the nation which must not be diluted in the future. We even had Sri Lanka and Bangladesh in full support in the ongoing spat with Canada.

Regional Issues
26. The success of India’s Foreign Policy will be based on the strength of our neighbourhood policy.

27. We will need to consider the aspirations of our neighbors and link this to India’s red lines. It is reassuring when President Joe Biden spends time with South Asian leaders such as Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in meetings set up with help of India.

28. In no way must China be given the leeway to influence the South Asian subcontinent. Besides material support Indian soft power, digital assistance and technical knowhow must dominate the landscape in all these nations. A more rigorous communication strategy for engagement of different segments of societies in these nations is essential.

29. Pakistan will continue to have an interest-based relationship with the US due to its geostrategic location. We should not fret about this as long as the US is transparent in its deals and remains favourably disposed to India in all other strategic matters. Attempting to obtain US favour towards India through an overreach may not be comfortable.

Pakistan
30. Pakistan has been economically failing for the past many years. It is not certain whether the status will finally lead to meltdown or remain a source of assistance in playing the victim card.

31. A full assessment on Pakistan’s capability under economic strain needs to be done.

32. There has been a revival of the US-Pakistan relationship with such issues as the provision of Pakistani ammunition for Ukraine in return for release of IMF funds. This is inevitable as US interests are multilateral too and should not perturb us. We must be only concerned about the realist threat of Pakistan when it is supported in any activity by the US. However, we must quietly express our concern to the US at all bilaterals.

33. Pakistan has the diplomatic deftness to bridge the gap between the US and China and take full advantage of it. Again we need to ensure that assessment of our interests being affected are realistic and not as a part of routine objections.

34. Pakistan is heading for elections. It is unlikely that there will be a clear cut result. Imran Khan’s party, Tehreek-e-Insaf (TeI), may not participate or could be under ban. The control of the political scene is likely to remain with the Army. Gen Asim Munir is going to become all powerful and supremely confident in the next three months and a party or coalition favoured by the Army will emerge as the next rulers of Pakistan.

35. While Kashmir will remain a lower priority for now, Pakistan is likely to ensure that its long-time investment in sponsoring proxy war is not diminished. We can safely assess a surge in some anti-national activities from time to time. Not disturbing the security grid in J&K would be advisable.

36. Pakistan has the ability to encash its nuisance value to obtain strategic favours. We should be watchful of this and continue advising the US, EU, the Islamic world and stakeholders in Asia.

Afghanistan
37. We need to revive the Indian Council for Cultural Relations (ICCR) scholarships for Afghan students and continue supporting the Afghan people without being critical of the Taliban 2.0. The latter is not in sync with Indian and international value systems but that should not perturb us. We should not block ourselves away from Afghanistan because our geostrategic interests are far too important in that region.

Nepal
38. The relationship has been beset by all kinds of interest groups. Protests in Nepal on boundary issues of Kalapani, Limpudhara and Lipulekh have been instigated by external sponsors. We have allowed the Agniveer issue to also become a bone of contention. We need to review the 1950 treaty for the obstacles in the way of better relations, examine ways of diluting Nepal’s land lock disadvantage and assist Nepal in its energy management. In addition a special effort to establish better communication strategy needs to be pursued besides removing all obstacles from the construction of the Indo-Nepal railway project.

China
39. As already brought out, we need not be provocative towards China and must continue building Comprehensive National Power (CNP). More is to be gained from accommodation and approach.

40. We need to considerably dilute asymmetry with China before embarking on a more autonomous approach.

41. Border villages along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) are fast diminishing on our side due to few opportunities for citizens while on the Chinese side new villages are being settled and populated. Special incentives and programs to stabilize populations along the LAC on our side need to be undertaken.

42. As part of our communication strategy, we should build narratives and spread them to the international community. These should be on China’s known weaknesses and falling standards of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

43. We need not counter every move of the Chinese but we need to stand up to it if it decides to employ its infamous wolf warrior diplomacy against it.

44. The LAC is well managed by the Army but it could be optimized far better if the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) was placed under command of the Army.

45. The neighbourhood is the ground where China attempts to restrict us and gain strategic space. This cannot be permitted in any of the nations.

46. China’s 18 trillion $ economy is its distinct advantage on the world stage. We need to reduce this asymmetry through our higher growth rate.

47. China is making greater efforts towards finding a greater global role for itself. The intervention in the Iran-Saudi standoff was undoubtedly a success but there is nothing permanent about it. China does not know West Asia sufficiently and its treatment of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang holds it back from an effective peace establishing role. India has the advantage of 8 million plus diaspora in the region which is a crucial strategic factor.

48. We need to determine whether our security forces are sufficiently fresh in their approach to national security. A tired Army in particular has a negative effect on the nation. This is why it is important to enhance the Human Resources management aspects through realistic feedback.

49. Our soft power efforts to contest China have not been sufficient. China has gone on a blitz to publicize dubbed Chines films on Over-The-Top (OTT) platforms. Even Hollywood which produced anti-German and anti-Russia films with such impunity is today reluctant to do the same to China.

50. The Indian Armed Forces have often studied cognitive warfare but rarely given anything more than lip service in its physical conduct. We have made some useful moves off late by sending our former Service Chiefs to Taiwan to participate in a seminar.

51. Attendance of international seminars across the important cities of the world by important, well-versed personalities known for erudition and patriotism must be an ongoing affair. A hundred such seminars in a year will ensure the Indian voice and opinion is better embedded internationally at little cost. All Indian missions must be in touch with important think tanks in their host countries.

52. Maritime strategy should be given its due but it must complement what our strategy in the continental domain will be.

West Asia
53. This is a region where Indian stakes are high and we have made considerable strategic gains. Pakistan has been neutralized substantially but the efforts need to continue. China’s presence was low key but its stakes have always been high due to its dependence on the region for its voracious energy needs. Its recent perceived success in brokering a deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia is overplayed in significance. Nevertheless, India needs to compete against Chinese influence in West Asia by building and dwelling on our own narratives.

54. The India, Israel, the UAE, and the US (I2U2) group is an effective strategic combination but an India-US-Saudi Arabia-UAE (IUSU) is a powerful consultant group to counter some of the initiatives that China has recently taken in its attempts to have strategic outreach to West Asia.

55. The decision on the sidelines of the G20 Summit, to set up the India - Middle East - Europe (IMEE) economic corridor is a proactive step to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It needs early activation despite many odds. The current Hamas Israel war must not be allowed to scuttle any of the geopolitical proposals which are ongoing.

56. It may be perceived that India’s linkages with Saudi Arabia, the US and UAE are against the interests of Iran. Our multilateralism is our strength. Therefore, efforts to keep the relationship with Iran going despite the sanctions is a must. Chahbahar continues to be of prime interest.

57. Turkey is in transition but we need not perceive all its actions being against our interests. Manage it rather than confront it.

Middle East
58. The Hamas-Israel War. On 7 Oct 2023 Hamas launched a seriously dastardly attack from Gaza against civilian and Israel Defence Forces (IDF) targets in Southern Israel. It resulted in a large number of deaths and many hostages were seized by Hamas.

59. The northern border with Lebanon has been only partially activated by Hezbollah in an attempt to keep the IDF spread and engaged.

60. Israel has retaliated in kind with the bombing of Gaza with large scale destruction of homes and infrastructure, including medical facilities.

61. The war has put on hold the tenuous peace in West Asia and resulted in various peace parleys being suspended. These include the Saudi Arabia – Israel talks, the Abraham Accords etc. Even India - Middle East - Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), the high profile proposed trade corridor from India to Europe, will be held up for the want of stability.

62. India’s stance has been appropriate through the Hon’ble Prime Minister’s tweet (X) message condemning the terrorist attack. It contextualized our response to an area in which India has been traditionally at the receiving end; terrorism. Later the MEA correctly balanced our comprehensive approach by supporting the legacy proposal the setting up of two separate states for Israel and Palestine.

63. While Israel’s response is bound to be kinetic in nature to satisfy the street sentiment, the quicker that the world can cooperatively neutralize Hamas the faster will peace emerge. Hamas has now ceased to have the legitimacy to govern and India too may join hands with several stake holders to bring multilateral pressure to prevent its return.

64. The ground offensive by the IDF, if launched, is going to be very expensive in terms of lives and material and could exacerbate the crisis further. India must support an early ceasefire and international mediation with a possible UN peacekeeping force to stabilize Gaza.

Central Asian Republics (CARs)
65. Central Asian Republics (CARs) are extremely important as the happenings there affect South Asia. Our lack of connectivity must not discourage engagement.

China’s interest in CARs and the traditional
Russian interest ensures that Sino-Russian linkages remain intact. It is not necessary for China to feel insecure due to Indian interest here.

Major Event Affecting India’s National Security
66. A major event affecting India’s national security was the Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Sikkim on Night 3-4 Oct 2023. This deserves our attention and some observations and recommendations in this regard are given below.

67. The Sikkim GLOF 3-4 Oct 2023. Natural disasters as a source of strategic insecurity have not received their due attention in India. The Sikkim GLOF was something perhaps anticipated for some years but technologies to mitigate and provide early warning were yet in development stage.

68. The South Lhonak lake broke its banks when probably a huge scarp of ice fell into it creating a debris flow into the Teesta River and the bursting of the Chungthang Dam.

69. The destruction has been mind boggling, putting back Sikkim by some years. In addition, the security of the borders may have been partially compromised due to the washing away of crucial communication arteries and wherewithal such as a full Ammunition Point.

70. The information of the effect of the GLOF was partially overshadowed, by the Hamas-Israel War which broke out on 07 Oct 2023. However,, perhaps the full magnitude of the enormity of the event may not have, been realized by those who have not had the occasion to visit the State, and take first hand briefings.

71. The allocations for rebuilding should be done in two parts – for the State, and the Army separately to allow both to be refurbished on a war footing with due coordination.

CONCLUSION
72. In view of the Hamas Israeli War, the return to prominence of Global Terrorism should cause concern worldwide. The Hamas war initiation bore the Stamp of ISIS and in all likelihood ISIS presence in Gaza is indicated. The CARs with its large Muslim population remains vulnerable and must continue to be in the Indian radar.