THE PROGRESSION OF RISK PRONE NATIONS IN SOUTH ASIA AND THE IMPACT ON INDIA’S SECURITY

Introduction

1. A year after the commencement of the Russia-Ukraine war uncertainty seems to rule the international order. The recovery process after the devastating Coronavirus pandemic has been stymied by the effects of the war; the domains of geopolitics, energy, food and overall economic security have come into focus. It’s a NATO (America – West Europe) versus Russia affair but touches the concerns and interests of almost the entire world. While India has steadfastly maintained its neutrality and given indications of playing a larger peacemaker’s role in the war it has also kept a watch over its other areas of interest. Its own reputation and place in the world order has seen an upliftment, perhaps due to its optimum handling of the pandemic, the effects thereafter and maintenance of steady economic resurgence.

2. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s sage advice to the Russian President about the times being unsuitable for war, in a one-on-one event on the sidelines of the SCO summit at Tashkent sparked much interest, pushing India into the geopolitical limelight. The subsequent diplomatic parleys by External Affairs Minister Jaishankar and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, in Washington, Moscow and other important capital cities put India into the loop of larger things to come. The Russians may not act upon India’s advice, yet they are open to discussion and listen to Indian advice. The same is with the US which has continued to steadily build the Indo-US strategic relationship despite India’s avowed neutrality followed for the sake of its own strategic interests.

3. The recently signed 470 aircraft deal worth 85 billion US$ by Air India, although not being underwritten by the Indian Government, is nevertheless another indicator of the West’s intent to remain strategically engaged through business dealings with India and Indian companies. The message is clear, India is doing better strategically than it was in the pre-pandemic period; one of the few countries successful in achieving that.

4. Given that in the military standoff in Apr-Sep 2020, it was China’s intent to dilute India’s rising strategic confidence and prevent it becoming an irreplaceable member of the emerging US strategic equations, India hasn’t done too badly. Yet concern cannot focus only on the international environment but equally on the regional neighborhood or the near abroad region. In strategic terms it is never good to be the shining light in a largely dismal environment.

5. South Asian economies have largely nosedived and many nations are struggling. That includes Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Bangladesh. Afghanistan is in the throes of instability with large tracts yet ungovernable and not under control.The return of global terror remains a distinct possibility

with its concomitant effects on India. The future of Bangladesh is uncertain and India’s investment in a single party and personality (Sheikh Hasina) may come back to haunt us. Sri Lanka almost imploded and was pulled back from the brink; the nation remained at a low level of turbulence and is making efforts to bounce back. The Maldives economy is in dire straits.

6. However, there cannot be a situation as seriously negative as in Pakistan where the combination of a failing economy, political turbulence, governance ineptitude and the threat of radicalism accompanied by terrorism, dominates the nation. There is the possibility of an internal meltdown putting the world at risk due to the potential of failure of command and control over Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and migration of large segments of the population. Nepal continues to play difficult for India despite its dependence on India for most of its economic needs. The option of playing China versus India exists and an uncertain internal political and ideological environment makes it necessary for India to focus its concern on Kathmandu. Myanmar remains an international pariah and its strategic leaning is hardly reliable.

7. Under the above circumstances India’s ambition of rising to be a 10 trillion US$ economy by 2035 will find all kinds of obstacles in its way. Unless the near abroad is stable and moves in sync with India’s progress it will never be possible for India to achieve its aims. South Asia needs to progress with India but refuses to do so.

ISSUES
8. With the above backdrop, it can be seen that India has to be in a watchful mood even though violence levels are currently low in its neighboring states and which is unlikely to last. There was therefore an imperative need to monitor and be prepared for any threats which may emanate in due course. Some issues which offer triggers for the progression into 2023 and beyond are important. These are :

(a) India’s stock in the international community has increased due to the demonstration of its ability to withstand the pandemic, the assistance it rendered to other nations during the challenging times and for adopting a neutral stand on the ongoing Russia—Ukraine war.

(b) The sage advice that Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered to President Putin about the times being unsuitable for war, in a one-on-one meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit at Tashkent, sparked much interest pushing India into the geopolitical limelight.

(c) India’s assumption of the G 20 Chairmanship has also come at a crucial time as it is holding the SCO rotating Presidency till Sep 2023 which also enhances its stature.

(d) This surge in confidence and recognition also needs to be seen in the light of India’s intent of achieving a five trillion US$ economy by 2025-26 and enhancing it to 10 trillion US$ by 2035. In order to do that a basic necessity would be peace and stability, something India has always aspired for.

(e) India’s strategic outlook needs to be both wide and focused. The period of the Coronavirus Pandemic is almost like a watershed event with the Nation’s strategic significance having enhanced considerably.

9. Considering the surge in India’s achievements and the perception the larger International Community holds about India, it is necessary to review the environment of our neighborhood to identify potential threats which could adversely affect India’s progression.This is necessary because many times the neighborhood could get relegated in priority, especially when there is so much activity beyond the neighborhood.

10. Surya Foundation Think Tank comprising domain experts carried out an in depth study of the progression of risk prone Nations and the impact on India’s Security. Their analysis and suggestions are given in the succeeding paras.

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATIONS
AFGHANISTAN
11. With the change of situation in Afghanistan, it should be considered a key partner for India in its own right and we should keep all options open, including the re-establishment of diplomatic ties. Afghanistan now has a Pashtun ethno-nationalist, ideologically extremist, conservative clerical regime. This needs the correct perspective of understanding. There are both threats and opportunities present and thus far the Taliban government has adopted a reasonably positive approach to India. Its work culture and ways of functioning need to be understood.

12. There should be sustained emphasis on the Afghan government to deny sanctuaries to global as well as India-focused terrorist groups. Development assistance should be the foil for threats posed by these elements.

13. India’s traditional relationship with the former Northern Alliance [Tajik,Uzbek] needs to be sustained even though these are now out of power Continued people-to-people relations with Afghanistan assumeimportance given the strong connection that has existed over thedecades. In this, the facilitation of visas to Afghans for medical and educationneeds to be streamlined to ensure genuine visitors are not denied this privilege.

PAKISTAN
14. Pakistan is in the throes of internal turmoil. A perception seems to prevail that the circumstances are existential in nature and that it may not survive as a nation. It was felt that this is an exaggerated point of view, arising more out of wishful thinking more than any sensible rationale. Pakistan is likely to survive the crisis with assistance from various interest groups in the international community, primarily because of its geo-strategic location and the relationships it has cultivated over many years, especially with important lobbies in the US. The following needs to be taken note of :-

(a) India need to be watchful and cater for all contingencies that could arise. However, rhetoric could be lowered with no intent of any intervention being projected.The current low level of activity in J&K may not last as Pakistan may not wish to lose what it has invested in. Small but innovative actions to remain relevant will continue. Down scaling of the Rashtriya Rifles in J&K may therefore be delayed for some time.

15. India need not be too concerned about international assistance to Pakistan but the specific US assistance to shore up the Pakistan Armed Forces must be protested, lest our approach be considered laissez-faire. A stable but weak nation is the desirable state of Pakistan that India considers most favorable. Currently, the Pakistan Army is perhaps at its lowest point in terms of public perception. It will work towards enhancing its image and how that manifests remains unpredictable. India should wait and watch for more clarity to emerge.

16. Indian intelligence agencies and security forces must work in sync to thwart Pakistan’s larger game plan of triggering turbulent situations both in Punjab and in J&K.

17. Our diplomatic outreach and communication strategy must take into account Pakistan’s continuous efforts to cultivate international opinion in its favor. The situation in Pakistan may not remain as negative as it currently is. A bounce-back should not surprise us and our security concept should cater to that.While Pakistan’s relationship with the Taliban is not what it was, the Durand Line issue is not as serious as is being made out to be.

CHINA
18. A series of uncharacteristic protests took place in China but were weak and unsynchronized. Yet the Communist Party of China (CPC) largely bowed to pressure; the Hong Kong type of handling did not occur. Xi Jinping is known to be taking some back steps in many areas despite his rising power. There is a realization that by 2030 a more aged society will emerge and could slow down China’s aspirations. There is some rethinking about the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), especially after its

failure in Pakistan.
19. There is a perception of a soft power deficit compared to what exists in the western world. The newly minted agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia which was curated and delivered by China would be a shot in the arm for China’s self-confidence. Its presence in the Middle East has been recognized even though it remains far from the Islamic world on the cultural and ideological plane. It is under pressure on the issue of weapons and equipment support to Russia with multiple warnings by the United States

(US) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
20. The exercise which commenced in Apr 2020 to pressure India has not achieved anything very much considering that one of its aims of it was to dilute India’s strategic confidence. In the bargain, India has become far more strategically confident, won the appreciation of the international community, and given an impetus to its self-reliance programs in terms of weapons and equipment needed to modernize India’s Armed Forces.

21. China is likely to retain its strategy of no demarcation and no delineation of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) as a tool of coercion. It is also constructing a new highway G695 which will run West of the old G219 highway. It may desire to give it more depth at some critical points thereby attempting to change the LAC alignment. India cannot afford to adopt trust and will always have to be on the lookout for any such indicators. The LAC becoming the Line of Control (LoC) in Ladakh is a notion not entirely wrong.

NEPAL
22. Nepal remains one of India’s most strategically important neighbors. It enjoys a border with India and China along the Himalayan mountainous front. Dealing with Nepal’s internal politics is increasingly challenging due to the new constitution. The makeup of the Constitution makes victory by a single party extremely difficult. Very frequent change of government takes place because of fractured verdicts. Two boundary points are contentious –Kalapani and the Lipulekh junction.

23. China is investing in consolidating all communist elements. Our outreach to different interest groups must be proactive exploiting the fact that China has promised much more than it can do. India must seek to establish easier financial norms between the two countries. Credit/debit cards, Indian currency, etc. must facilitate easier travel to keep our traditional relationship intact. A rail connection to Kathmandu is mandatory to counter China’s railway’s project and more collaboration on the Surya Hills complex is recommended. Climate change and disaster management must form part of Indo-Nepal cooperation.

BANGLADESH
24. As long as Sheikh Hasina remains in power India has a good relationship going with Bangladesh. Yet, nothing can be taken for granted for the future. Nehruvism, socialism, democracy and quasi-secularism are existent in Bangladesh due to Sheikh Hasina’s personal commitment to these. India’s role in the 1971 Indo-Pak Conflict is being focused upon but an undercurrent of resistance to these exists under more radically oriented political personalities, the clergy, and even within the Army.

25. India has desisted from creating lobbies but that is a method it needs to adopt. Pakistan’s influence among the radical Islamic elements is far-reaching and needs to be countered. The forces of radicalization are very powerful in Bangladesh. One of the ways of establishing greater influence and restricting the dependence on any Bangladesh government is by establishing people-to-people contacts. More academic visits, joint research projects, festivals, and tourism should enhance the exchanges. However, all these must be undertaken on an equal basis with no room for domination by one on the other. What India needs to be prepared for is the ‘what after Sheikh Hasina’ situation.

MYANMAR
26. Myanmar is a neighbor of immense importance to India, considering its geographic location, history of past relations, and geopolitical stakes. This nation is vital for the security and economic development of Northeast India. The reverse is also true, India’s significance for Myanmar lies as a possible balancer to China and its record as a successful democracy that marches on the path of development.

27. Myanmar’s history over the past decade has demonstrated the success and challenges of its experiment with democracy. Since the last military coup on 1 February 2021, Myanmar has lived through a long nightmare. The nation stands fragmented; its government and people suffer from a cycle and counter-cycle of violence; and its economy has been in a free-fall. A complete impasse exists among the principal stakeholder’s vis, the military, the Opposition, and the Ethnic Groups. The international community has been unable to help Myanmar due to its own internal divisions. The West believes in imposing sanctions and punishing the military for overthrowing a democratic government. Russia and China have been busy befriending the military government.

28. Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the principal regional grouping charged by the United Nations (UN) to mediate, has failed to implement the Five Point Consensus due to the non-cooperation of the military leadership.