VISION INDIA 2047

Introduction
1. The government is committed to Vision India 2047. This entails India realising its potential and joining the ranks of the developed nations by its 100th year of Independence Day falling in 2047. While addressing NITI Ayog on 23 May 2023 the Prime Minister stressed the need for evolving a common mission to achieve the goal for a developed India by 2047.

2. Surya Think Tank, comprising experts in their domain, deliberated on various aspects that would enable India to realise Vision India 2047. Their analysis and recommendations are enumerated in the succeeding paragraphs.

Building Human Capital at Bottom of the Pyramid
3. Demographic Dividend : The “Demographic Dividend” favouring India presently, would gradually diminish over the next two decades. For optimal utilisation of this dividend, the country would have to lay emphasis on Health, Education and Skilling, for a healthy and capable workforce to take it to its goal, by the centennial year - 2047. Primary Health Centres (PHCs) and District Hospitals play a pivotal role in our healthcare system.

4. The Centre and the States, together need to provide quality Primary and Secondary education as laid out in the New Education Policy (NEP) and in addition Skill youth seeking employment. 5. Support to Knowledge Initiatives : A Knowledge Economy would be beneficial to India in its transition to a developed state. It would need to support knowledge initiatives.

6. The following are the suggestions in this regard : Health
(a) The Centre and State governments should augment District hospitals and PHCs adequately.
(b) Centre should support establishment of virtual Telemedicine Clinics with connectivity to District hospitals.

Education
(a) The central government and the state governments should use technology to improve the quality of primary and secondary education. This includes providing students with access to computers and the internet and using technology to deliver educational content.

(b) The Centre and the State Govts must implement the important recommendation of the NEP, expeditiously which would enable three-year-old children to attend play schools. With fortified breakfast, meals, and through medical checkups, a beginning can be made to address nutritional and other deficiencies from a young age itself.

(c) Extend greater support to knowledge initiatives and Atma Nirbhar initiatives in R&D. This would spur economic growth, with reduced carbon intensity.

Economy
7. Accelerating economic growth would need to be accompanied by financial stability, financial inclusiveness, reducing income and social inequity, with balanced all round regional growth.

8. Increasing Tax GDP Ratio : There is a case to raise the tax level for high-net worth individuals with offers of rebate in case of investment in specified long-term green or development bonds. Presently, Private Capex is not forthcoming despite corporate tax reductions. The govt. should consider raising Tax GDP ratio from the present level of 10 percent to 20 percent.

9. Employment Generation : With rising economic growth focus should be on productive employment generation which will not only increase rural and agricultural incomes but also improve quality of life.

10. A body is required to exercise control over fiscal deficit and enable coordinated progress of capital projects and development works/ welfare schemes. It may be named as Interstate Council of Fiscal Management and Development Council which in its working may replicate the consensual approach developed by the GST council.

11. Support Initiatives for Employment Generation : The Govt may intensify startup/ entrepreneurial support initiatives.

Energy Security
12. Coal is the backbone of India’s energy security. An early introduction of Carbon reduction measures in Thermal power generation be instituted expeditiously, to continue using this resource with least carbon emission.

13. Lead by PSUs, the Steel industry (by using hydrogen) and other industries need to adopt Carbon reduction measures for India to be a successful exporter of green products.

14. Recommendations
(a) Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCU&S) Technology: This technology must be progressed on mission mode by India, in thermal generation, to utilize its coal reserves.
(b) Adoption of Other Carbon Reduction Measures
(i) Steel PSUs should take the lead in adopting carbon reduction measures.
(ii) Increase production of Hydrogen from Coal.
(iii) Pursue Biomass development.
Water and Food Security
15. In the backdrop of the climate change, water and food security assume special significance.

16. Water Security : It is necessary to obtain an additional 150 Billion Cubic Metres (BCM) storage capacity from projects under planning/ consideration till 2035 and another 150 BCM by 2045.

17. Ushering in a Second Green Revolution : Punjab is facing serious ground water depletion due to paddy cultivation and Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka on account of their unsustainable model of sugar cane production. Rainfed regions can increase their production of millet (Annashree), oilseeds, pulses and cotton. A Second Green Revolution is required with focus on the Eastern sector, with its good water availability to enhance paddy sugarcane/ethanol production and with focus on rainfed regions which have hitherto not received support to the extent irrigated areashave received.

18. Agricultural Contribution to GDP : While agriculture and allied sectors sectors account for 45.5 percent of workforce , their contribution to the GDP is only around 20.9 percent.

19. Challenges in Agriculture : Agriculture provides food and raw material for industry. Landholdings are getting fragmented with a majority of the farmers having less than 1 hectare of land (marginal category).

20. Increasing Agricultural Productivity : Agricultural land is reducing due to droughts/floods, climate change and catering to demand from a rising population, estimated to touch 1.7 billion, by 2047.

21. Developing Climate Resilient Hybrids : Besides proper seed, fertilizer, and pesticide management, there is an urgent need to support the development of climate-resilient hybrids and short-duration varieties for improving yield. 22. Risk Management Complexities Under Climate Change: Instituting Risk Management Authority for Agriculture : The role of forecasting hereafter will have to be enlarged to a multi-modal approach with deeper analysis of the weather pattern with regard to excessive short-duration precipitation, identification of localized spots of high temperatures affecting yield, climate change impact on pests, animal health, market price information, etc using digital technology for quick dissemination of information to target groups in the agriculture and allied sectors.

23. Reprioritization in Primary Agriculture : Agricultural production is excessively skewed in favour of paddy and wheat vis-a-vis millet, pulses, oil seeds etc., with large procurement for the Public Distribution System and increasing Minimum Support Price (MSP) support.

24. Promoting Agriculture Allied Sectors : Horticulture products (Fruits, Vegetables, Aromatic, Medicinal plants), have higher value and export potential. They require encouragement by the government. Allied sectors like Animal Husbandry/ Dairy Development, Aquaculture, Poultry Development can add to farm/rural income, employment and exports. Biomass cultivation be progressed to meet energy demands.

25. Potential of Secondary Side of Agriculture : The potential of the secondary side of Agriculture, which can contribute substantially to the rural economy, is not being fully tapped. The production of Bioenergy, Ethanol/ Alcohol, hydrogen from biomass, development of biodegradable products from agricultural residues is steadily increasing and can contribute substantially.

26. Launching Farmer’s Producers Organizations/ Cooperatives : Farmers, particularly marginal farmers need to be given “Market Power” and their input costs reduced.

27. Shifting Surplus Agricultural Labour : There is an estimated surplus of 10 crore Agriculture labour who will need to be shifted out. Govt in 2015 brought out the Dr SP Mukherjee RUrban Mission (SPMRM) to develop townships at the centre of villages clusters with education, health facilities and industrial/ service parks to spread industries. 298 clusters with a package of Rs 27716 crores, have been approved. This will enable the surplus labour in villages to commute to these townships for employment but reside in villages. China in a similar experiment coined the slogan “Leave Agriculture but stay in villages”.

28. Recommendations / Other Focus Areas / Augmenting Ground Water Recharge
(a) Strengthening Artificial Recharge Techniques : Artificial recharge techniques by Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) be strengthened. PPP mode be resorted to in order to accelerate the programme.
(b) Pricing Surplus Water : A framework for pricing interstate surplus water transfers be evolved expeditiously on the lines of successful power trading, to facilitate states to share their surplus water.
Exports And Imports
29. Considering its potential, India must plan to become a global hub not only in IT/Digital and other services (Legal, Financial, Accounting, Educational, Medical Tourism, etc.) but also in Steel, Textile and Leather, Pharma, Electronics, Heavy and Small Engineering Goods, Gems and Jewelleries, Marine & Agro-products and Special Chemicals. With Production Linked Initiatives (PLI) stabilizing, protectionism should be progressively withdrawn to enable Indian industries to achieve quality/ cost leadership with innovation. India should aspire to reach 10 percent of global exports and develop at least 100 Indian brands as global champions. For success in service sector, there is a need for India to develop international language skills especially in Spanish, French, German, Chinese, Japanese etc.

30. Reducing Imports : High energy dependent imports in FY 23 touched US$ 259.3 billion. Production of coal based fertilisers instead of gas based should be increased as China is doing in a big way.

31. Launching Coastal Economic Zones : The country needs to attract FDI for refineries and petrochemical complexes. (from friendly Gulf oil rich Gulf countries and mega green steel plants with support from South korea and Japan with an aging population).

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Measures
32. Estimates indicate that an average annual outlay of Rs 16.5 lakh crores will be needed for climate mitigation measures up to 2070 (zero emission year) in addition to the present capital outlay of Rs 10 lakh crore annually. This will be a challenging task for Govt.

33. Concept of Li-FE : PM in COP 26 on 21 Aug in Glasgow postulated the concept of Li-FE i.e., adjusting Life - reducing needs and wants of individuals to contribute to carbon emission reduction. This issue requires wide propagation and education.

34. Recommendations
(a) Li-FE. Go for smaller climate-friendly buildings, reducing use of climate control equipment, habitant planning to reduce commuting, conservation of energy and use of the 3R principles- Reduce, Reuse and Recycle.
(b) Clean Energy Transition : States should be supported in transition to clean energy. To support the States, a Just Transition Fund be set up garnering revenues from an environmental pollution tax levied on major industries that have emission intensity higher than an agreed threshold.
(c) Carbon Tax : Imposition of Carbon tax and evolving a carbon trading system should be considered. International transactions of carbon credits should be promoted at the Govt to Govt level and certain percentage of the total value of such credits say 2 percent should be credited to the Just Transition Fund.
(d) Hydrogen Economy : Production, storage and use of all kinds of hydrogen should be encouraged to help the country move towards a hydrogen economy rather than focusing only on costlier green hydrogen which should be reserved for green product exports e.g., green steel. We should promote research into replacing coal in steel and cement sectors with hydrogen of all kinds- grey, brown or green and producing green steel or green cement.
(e) Corporate Environmental Responsibility : Corporate Environmental Responsibility should be made a statutory obligation based on specific environmental attributes to be achieved.